India's Q4 FY25 GDP growth likely to accelerate to 7.0%: UBI

The growth rate of the Indian economy in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025 will clock 7.0 per cent, with an uptick from the third quarter (Q3 FY25) of 6.2 per cent, according to a report by Union Bank of India (UBI)."Our heat map of high-frequency indicators shows a mixed picture even as our economic activity index signalled a mild upward bias. The latter tracks well with GVA ex agri & government, a metric of private sector activity, and hence we see it showing a pickup to 6.8 per cent in Q4 from 5.9 per cent in Q3 FY25," the report added. Citing the RBI Bulletin, the report says that indicators signal a sequential improvement in economic momentum during the second half of FY25, with this trend expected to continue. The RBI's GDP now cast projects Q4 FY25 growth at 6.6 per cent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected India's GDP at 6.2 per cent in FY25 and 6.3 per cent in fiscal 2026, driven by strong private consumption, even as global growth slows to 2.8 per cent in 2025.